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Tuesday, November 4, 2008

What is a Political Blog without an Election Prediction?

My optimistic prediction map, thanks to USA Today’s electoral vote tracker which allows web viewers to create their own map.

It’s 6:00 AM on the East Coast on election day and I’m finally posting my predictions for the upcoming 2008 election. By this time tomorrow, we will all have a clear idea of who our next President of the United States of America will be.

My prediction, Barack Obama will win by a landslide!

Thanks to the magic of the internet and the incredibly talented designers at USA Today, Juan Thomassie, Josh Hatch, and Lisa Tanger, I can create my own personal electoral map. You can do this yourself by going to: www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/electoral-vote-tracker.htm

My optimistic prediction has Obama winning by 369 electoral votes, mostly by taking the states along the Mississippi valley, the West Coast, and Northeast.

Remember Vice Presidential candidate John Edwards and how he lost his own state of North Carolina in 2004? My prediction is that Sarah Palin will lose Alaska even though it has historically gone Republican. What an upset that will be!

However, beloved sons McCain will win Arizona, Obama will win Hawaii, and Biden will win Pennsylvania.

Colorado will go to Obama. The environmentalists have moved in.

Montana will also go to Obama. The unique people there, part environmentalist, part blue collar intellectuals, are hurting terribly from the horrible economy.

Georgia will go to Obama, riled up by the excitement of electing an African American candidate.

North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia will go to McCain. These are the states of the old south, the good ol’ boys.

The Midwest states from Texas north to North Dakota, Wyoming, Idaho, and Utah will also go to McCain. I drove through this area when moving to Florida in 2007 and got a chance to listen to the political talk shows on local radio stations and view the TV news broadcasts. It’s like a different world here. My guess is that the majority of voters here believe that Obama is the anti-Christ.

West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Louisiana will surprise everyone by voting for Obama. My reasoning? Recent college graduates, feeling liberated from their conservative upbringings will come out in droves and vote Democrat. College grads carry cell phones, not land lines, and can't be polled. Middle class white workers can’t afford healthcare and want lower taxes.

Although I myself live in Florida, I’m sad to say I don’t think Obama will win here. There are simply too many closet white supremacists living here. If Obama does win, I will have a new appreciation and respect for the residents here. I will no longer keep my bedroom window open at night so that I can keep an eye on the Obama sign in my front yard, hoping no one steals it… again!

In Florida, there is also a lot of voter fraud, particularly among what I like to call, “dual voters,” individuals who vote twice, usually in two states. While standing in line for early voting in Florida, my friend and her fiancĂ©, Ryan, argued about him voting twice. Ryan, a diehard Republican, had just moved from Texas where he’d voted absentee. His argument, “I still own land there.” Channel 9, WFTV found over 100,000 voters registered in both Orange County, Florida as well as in Georgia and Ohio. In some cases, these are students who get absentee ballots from their home state, but also register in Florida. In other cases, these are retired “snow birds” who live in northern states in the summer and Florida in the winter. Better not do it, despite how tempting it may be. It’s a felony punishable up to ten years in jail.

This isn’t the first time I’ve personally witnessed possible dual voting. In the 2004 election, I volunteered for the Washington State Democrats and went door to door on election day reminding people to vote. My “boss” and I found one house with two addresses, one facing the north and another out the back door facing a road to the south. The guy was registered twice under the same name. I suggested we tell an authorities, but my well-meaning boss said “Shh! He’s voting Democrat!”

Obviously, the United States of America needs to create a national voting registry based on Social Security numbers.

I created a less than optimistic prediction map, but I’m not going to bother posting it. In all scenarios I played with on the USA Today website, Obama wins, anyway. We might as well enjoy a landslide!